The Presidential Cycle and Market Watch for 2016

Politics being what it is, looking at the four-year cycle of returns for the stock market makes sense. It is in the incumbent party’s interest to try to make visible improvements in the quality of life, national affairs in general, or some specific issue that pleases the public as an election approaches. At least that’s what I would do. I would also expect next year – the election year -- to post … [Read more...]

Improve Your Sector Returns With Equal Weighting

There is no doubt that ETFs are a good way to invest. They reduce your exposure to the ups and downs of a single stock and avoid having to choose which stock in a sector is going to be the best next year. It turns out there is an easy way to get the same protection, better returns, and lower risk, doing it yourself. It goes back to understanding equal weighting versus capitalization weighting, but … [Read more...]

IPOs: When Do You Buy?

IPOs are hot items. They’re exciting and they can be all over the news for days, but when is the right time to buy? We’ve collected the data for the 9 largest IPOs of 2014 and the all-time largest IPOs. Just to remind you, the largest ones are shown in the table below: Source: We’ll look at a selection of five of the all-time largest IPOs, as a representative … [Read more...]

Key Reversals: Do They Really Mean Anything?

I’ve always like key reversals. They seem intuitively correct. Prices open higher then reverse during the day to close lower, after posting higher highs and lower lows than the previous day. If it’s a more volatile day, higher volume, or the end of a good run up or down, I feel even better about it. A bearish key reversal day looks to me like a struggle between buyers and sellers, with the sellers … [Read more...]

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