Matching the Markets to the Strategy

At the risk of being too “geeky,” not all markets will be profitable with all systems. Part of being successful trading is to know which strategies to apply to which markets. We can never be perfect because economics and supply/demand can change, but most markets can be put into a category that favors one trading method over another. For example, if you’re a macrotrend trader, holding positions … [Read more...]

Dogging the DOW, Debunking Myths

Besides showing a new trading strategy, we'll look at why these statements aren't true: Large companies cannot grow at the same rate due to their own weight Dogs of the Dow are a good investment because company performance rotates Arbitraging using only DOW stocks is a fool’s errand Analysts seemed to have looked at the Dow Industrials (DOW) in every way imaginable, trying to eke out … [Read more...]

High Momentum or Mean Reversion?

A long, long time ago, back in the 1990s, we had a method called “High-Momentum Trading.” It was a short-term strategy that took advantage of overbought and oversold conditions – not by fading them (selling overbought and buying oversold values), but by buying overbought and selling oversold situations. It does seem contrary to the concept of being overbought or oversold, but it’s all about … [Read more...]

November 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance A larger number of hedge fund managers are reporting results early this month, a sure sign that everything is going well. Equity Long programs are the real benchmark, and they were up 1.45% in November, about the same as our stock programs. For 2017 they have posted 12.59% higher, a nice return so far (but below our Daily Programs). Active management involve a … [Read more...]

October 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Early reporting shows lower gains then we would expect when all the data is updated. Equity long shows the best gains so far, a percent ahead of SPY in October. The SG Trend Index is close to our returns for October, while the BTOP 50 shows only half that return. It could be that the CTAs reporting early are the ones with the best performance. We still expect … [Read more...]

September 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Early reporting of equity performance indicates a profitable month, running at about the same rate as our equity programs, but lagging the major equity index benchmarks. Futures are posted daily, so that performance reflects returns through September 29. Of those, the BTOP 50 is the best indication of the Industry, off about 2% for September and down 4.39% for 2017. … [Read more...]

August 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Positive returns for both equities and CTAs, good news for investors. Equity funds added less than 1% in August but added to the 2017 returns. They still lag the major index ETFs by 50%. CTAs also posted gains, bringing the overall CTA Index for Barclays and SG within a percent of breaking even for the year. Trend programs had the best return of 2.45% in early … [Read more...]

July 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance A generally good month for all programs, with long equity running ahead of the pack. But that would be expected in 9-year bull market. Even the Fund of Funds are showing gains. Futures CTAs posted mixed profits in July, with trend-following doing the best, and trimming somewhat substantial losses. We’re all waiting for some major trends to develop. Blogs and … [Read more...]

June 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Early reporting shows small gains in the hedge funds, but adding to a reasonably good year-to-date return. The futures funds (CTAs) continue to struggle with no major trends being sustained in interest rates, the main driver of profits. Some gains from the weakening dollar were not enough to offset the uncertainty in yields, and equity index markets have either been … [Read more...]

May 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance With only about 25% of the equity and commodity funds reporting, we see small gains in all sectors, even while the BTOP 50 (Futures CTAs are posting a small loss. Our performance in the Trend Equity portfolios far exceeded the industry, and the returns for Futures were generally better, although not by the same margin. This is shaping up to be a good year for … [Read more...]

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