Archives

Will Prices Give Us A Christmas Gift?

Is there a Christmas rally in the stock market? Is there liquidation at the end of the year? So far, our election predictions have been correct, that the day after the election will determine the direction of prices for the next three weeks. We’re now past that. What can we expect for the rest of the year? If we look at the history of December performance from 1950, shown in Chart 1, we see … [Read more...]

Entering at the Right Time of Day Can Double Your Long-Term Profits

We’ve all heard a lot about averaging down, scaling in, waiting for a pullback, and other clever methods for entering a position. Most active investors, those who follow a medium to long-term trend, wouldn’t think that whether you enter on open following a signal, or the close, or even the next day, would make much difference in the long run. But it does. Buy or Sell First? When I’m entering or … [Read more...]

Uncovering the Best Tradeable Bond Fund

From the view of alternative investments, bonds have had the best returns for the past 40 years. Well almost. There are periods, some recent, where bond prices have gone down anticipating higher rates that never came. When we think of buying a bond funds, any of a large number of ETFs, the elephant in the room is the risk of interest rates turning higher. It will happen – someday – and we need to … [Read more...]

December 2016 Performance Report

­   Industry Benchmark Performance Hedge Fund early reporting for December shows good returns for the Index and positive for Long Bias. Other data were not yet available. We are pleased that our Daily Trend Futures program is running 10% better than the industry. CTA returns were slightly better in December, the end of a difficult year for most of the industry. Trend following … [Read more...]

November 2016 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Hedge Fund preliminary reporting for November show good returns for the Equity Long Bias, but still lagging the S&P by 4% for the year. Although the small caps have done extraordinarily well, it’s difficult for a large fund to put much of its investment there due to liquidity. Hedge funds tend to invest in specific stock and bond issues, rather than the index … [Read more...]

October 2016 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance The equity and futures markets are floundering, along with the performance of fund managers. Although the composite results shown in the Benchmarks table below don’t look disastrous, they may not contain all the information. According to a number of articles and Venture Capital Post (Nov 1) “World Hedge Fund Managers [are] In Trouble.” The past three years has … [Read more...]

September 2016 Performance Report

  Industry Benchmark Performance The last few days of the month turned a loss into a breakeven for most of the broad index ETFs, holding on to nice profits for the year. Hedge funds are mixed and it’s reported that Perry Capital is closing down. For investors who don’t trade, the market looks higher, but for traders and systematic programs, it’s been very erratic getting there. CTA … [Read more...]

The Pattern In Politics, Redux

The Presidential Cycle 2016 and 2017 Once upon a time, the 4-year Presidential Cycle was reasonably predictable. In the year of the election, the incumbents would try to boost the economy, which was reflected in the stock market, and everyone would be happy. In the year after the election the President was able to implement a few of the more visible campaign promises and the market continued … [Read more...]

How To Trade “Brexit” And Other Price Shocks

We all know that we can’t predict a price shock, at least not many of them, and not which direction prices will go. If we could, it wouldn’t be a shock and we’d all be rich. But there are different kinds of prices shocks and different opportunities. The British vote to leave the EC is a good example, and that’s not played out yet. Predicting a Price Shock Yes, if you know a major event is … [Read more...]

Timing Can Be Everything

Entering at the Right Time of Day Can Double your Long-Term Profits We’ve all heard a lot about averaging down, scaling in, waiting for a pullback, and other clever methods for entering a position. Most active investors, those who follow a medium to long-term trend, wouldn’t think that whether you enter on open following a signal, or the close, or even the next day, would make much difference in … [Read more...]

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