Archives

July 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance A generally good month for all programs, with long equity running ahead of the pack. But that would be expected in 9-year bull market. Even the Fund of Funds are showing gains. Futures CTAs posted mixed profits in July, with trend-following doing the best, and trimming somewhat substantial losses. We’re all waiting for some major trends to develop. Blogs and … [Read more...]

June 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Early reporting shows small gains in the hedge funds, but adding to a reasonably good year-to-date return. The futures funds (CTAs) continue to struggle with no major trends being sustained in interest rates, the main driver of profits. Some gains from the weakening dollar were not enough to offset the uncertainty in yields, and equity index markets have either been … [Read more...]

May 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance With only about 25% of the equity and commodity funds reporting, we see small gains in all sectors, even while the BTOP 50 (Futures CTAs are posting a small loss. Our performance in the Trend Equity portfolios far exceeded the industry, and the returns for Futures were generally better, although not by the same margin. This is shaping up to be a good year for … [Read more...]

April 2017 Performance Report

­ Industry Benchmark Performance   Hedge funds eked out a small gain for April, adding to 2017 returns, but running at about half of the SPY returns. Given the market uncertainty, prices have not moved in a smooth pattern, so the industry should be pleased with net gains. CTAs did not fare as well. Barclays shows fractional gains in April, but net losses for the year. The SG … [Read more...]

March 2017 Performance Report

Industry Benchmark Performance Hedge Fund early reporting for March shows small losses in equities and in most CTA benchmarks. The BTOP50, the index of large futures funds, is showing a loss for 2017; however, the SG CTA index shows a net gain for 2017 while the individual breakdown of short-term and trend are both losses. It seems inconsistent. Change in Futures Portfolios (This is … [Read more...]

February 2017 Performance Report

­ Industry Benchmark Performance Hedge Fund early reporting for February shows nice gains in equities, but lagging behind both the broad market indices and our own performance. The BTOP50, the index of large futures funds, is showing a loss for 2017, similar to our own performance. But with only a modest number of funds reporting, we’ll wait for more information. February Performance in … [Read more...]

January 2017 Performance Report

­ Industry Benchmark Performance Hedge Fund early reporting for January shows good gains in equities, with multi-strategy programs gaining more than 3%. Early reporting of Barclays benchmarks show mostly flat returns for January, but the BTOP 50, which should be more current, shows a loss of 1%. Stocks have been doing better than Futures for the past year.   January Performance in … [Read more...]

Will Prices Give Us A Christmas Gift?

Is there a Christmas rally in the stock market? Is there liquidation at the end of the year? So far, our election predictions have been correct, that the day after the election will determine the direction of prices for the next three weeks. We’re now past that. What can we expect for the rest of the year? If we look at the history of December performance from 1950, shown in Chart 1, we see … [Read more...]

Entering at the Right Time of Day Can Double Your Long-Term Profits

We’ve all heard a lot about averaging down, scaling in, waiting for a pullback, and other clever methods for entering a position. Most active investors, those who follow a medium to long-term trend, wouldn’t think that whether you enter on open following a signal, or the close, or even the next day, would make much difference in the long run. But it does. Buy or Sell First? When I’m entering or … [Read more...]

Uncovering the Best Tradeable Bond Fund

From the view of alternative investments, bonds have had the best returns for the past 40 years. Well almost. There are periods, some recent, where bond prices have gone down anticipating higher rates that never came. When we think of buying a bond funds, any of a large number of ETFs, the elephant in the room is the risk of interest rates turning higher. It will happen – someday – and we need to … [Read more...]

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